Fortum Interim Report January-September 2016: Low hydro production volumes affected seasonally weak quarter


FORTUM CORPORATION INTERIM REPORT JANUARY−SEPTEMBER 2016 25 OCTOBER 2016 AT 9:00 EEST

July−September 2016, continuing operations
- Comparable operating profit EUR 58 (79) million, -27%
- Operating profit EUR -6 (-682) million, of which EUR -65 (-761) million relates to items affecting comparability. In the corresponding period of 2015, the negative impact was mainly due to the decision on the early closing of two nuclear units in Sweden
- Earnings per share EUR -0.03 (-0.74), of which EUR -0.06 (-0.78) related to items affecting comparability. In the corresponding period of 2015, EUR -0.80 per share related to the decision on the early closure of two nuclear units in Sweden
- Cash flow from operating activities totalled EUR 101 (151) million
- Fortum’s Ekokem acquisition was finalised
January−September 2016, continuing operations
- Comparable operating profit EUR 455 (565) million, -19%
- Operating profit EUR 430 (-188) million, of which EUR -25 (-752) million relates to items affecting comparability. In the corresponding period of 2015, the negative impact was mainly due to the decision on the early closing of two nuclear units in Sweden
- Earnings per share EUR 0.40 (-0.28), of which EUR -0.03 (-0.77) related to items affecting comparability. In the corresponding period of 2015, EUR -0.80 per share related to the decision on the early closure of two nuclear units in Sweden
- Cash flow from operating activities totalled EUR 471 (896) million
- Fortum completed its multi-year investment programme in Russia
- Fortum's business structure was reorganised and the new Executive Management Team took place as of 1 April 2016
- Fortum acquired Grupa DUON and Ekokem
Summary of outlook
- Fortum continues to expect the annual electricity demand to grow in the Nordic countries by approximately 0.5% on average
- The Generation segment's Nordic generation hedges: approximately 80% hedged at EUR 29 per MWh for the rest of 2016; and for 2017, approximately 50% hedged at EUR 28 per MWh; and for 2018 approximately 30% hedged at EUR 25 per MWh.
- Operating profit level (EBIT) for the Russia segment, RUB 18.2 billion, is targeted to be reached during 2017-2018. The euro-denominated result level will be volatile, due to currency translation effects
Key financial ratios*
2015
LTM
Return on capital employed, %
22.7
3.2
Comparable net debt/EBITDA
-1.7
-0.1
 
Key figures
III/16
III/15
I-III/16
I-III/15
2015
LTM
Sales, EUR million
732
661
2,489
2,495
3,459
3,453
Comparable EBITDA, EUR million
 
 
 
 
 
 
continuing operations
151
163
717
787
1,102
1,033
discontinued operations
-
-
-
163
163
-
total Fortum
151
163
717
950
1,265
1,033
Comparable operating profit, EUR million
 
 
 
 
 
 
continuing operations
58
79
455
565
808
698
discontinued operations
-
-
-
114
114
-
total Fortum
58
79
455
678
922
698
Operating profit, EUR million
 
 
 
 
 
 
continuing operations
-6
-682
430
-188
-150
468
discontinued operations
-
-
-
4,395
4,395
-
total Fortum
-6
-682
430
4,207
4,245
468
Share of profits of associates and joint ventures, EUR million
 
 
 
 
 
 
continuing operations
11
-95
116
-15
20
151
discontinued operations
-
-
-
0
0
-
total Fortum
11
-95
116
-15
20
151
Profit before taxes, EUR million
 
 
 
 
 
 
continuing operations
-40
-818
411
-325
-305
431
discontinued operations
-
-
-
4,393
4,393
-
total Fortum
-40
-818
411
4,068
4,088
431
Earnings per share, EUR
 
 
 
 
 
 
continuing operations
-0.03
-0.74
0.40
-0.28
-0.26
0.41
discontinued operations
-
-
-
4.92
4.92
-
total Fortum
-0.03
-0.74
0.40
4.64
4.66
0.41
Net cash from operating activities, EUR million, continuing operations
101
151
471
896
1,228
803
Shareholders’ equity per share, EUR
 
 
14.75
15.54
15.53
 
Interest-bearing net debt (at end of period), EUR million
 
 
 
-137
-1,936
-2,195
 
 
Fortum’s President and CEO Pekka Lundmark:
“The third quarter is always challenging due to the seasonality of our business. This year was no exception. Fortum’s results continued to decline mainly due to significantly lower hydro production volumes. The decline was partially offset by strong performance in the Russia segment, a clearly higher achieved power price and higher nuclear volumes compared to the third quarter of 2015.
There are, however, some positive signs on the power market, mainly driven by commodity and emission prices. Forward market prices increased at the very end of the quarter and are now clearly higher than at the end of the second quarter.
Another positive development was the Swedish government’s budget proposal in September; it included the timetable for lowering the real-estate tax on hydro assets and for phasing out the nuclear capacity tax over the coming years. We are very pleased with the swift decision and the finalisation of the timetable, which gives regulatory stability to operate the plants and plan the necessary safety investments. This is completely in line with what we have been advocating for; a regulation and taxation policy where the different forms of CO2-free production are treated more equally.
As the investment programme in Russia was completed during the spring, OAO Fortum’s new capacity has been the key driver for the earnings growth in the Russia division.
During the quarter, Fortum finalised the acquisition of Ekokem, a leading Nordic circular economy company. The deal marks a very important step in the implementation of our strategy and gives us access to new revenue streams independent on the Nordic power price.
We have continued reducing fixed costs according to earlier announced plan and the progress has been good. Enabled by our strong net cash position, we will carry on our efforts to grow and we are constantly looking for good investment opportunities, as outlined in our strategy.“
Financial results
Sales by segment
EUR million
III/16
III/15
I-III/16
I-III/15
2015
LTM
Generation
371
377
1,222
1,282
1,722
1,662
City Solutions
237
185
894
835
1,187
1,246
Russia
175
154
606
627
893
872
Other
29
28
91
86
114
119
Netting of Nord Pool transactions
-66
-57
-255
-240
-336
-351
Eliminations
-15
-26
-69
-95
-122
-96
Total continuing operations
732
661
2,489
2,495
3,459
3,453
Discontinued operations                            
-
-
-
274
274
-
Eliminations
-
-
-
-31
-31
-
Total Fortum
732
661
2,489
2,738
3,702
3,453
 
Comparable operating profit by segment
EUR million
III/16
III/15
I-III/16
I-III/15
2015
LTM
Generation
77
102
330
419
561
472
City Solutions
-16
-13
49
55
108
102
Russia
12
0
125
132
201
194
Other
-15
-10
-49
-42
-63
-70
Total continuing operations
58
79
455
565
808
698
Discontinued operations
-
-
-
114
114
-
Total Fortum
58
79
455
678
922
698
 
Operating profit by segment
EUR million
III/16
III/15
I-III/16
I-III/15
2015
LTM
Generation
18
-651
261
-332
-396
197
City Solutions
-21
-22
60
51
105
114
Russia
12
1
159
134
203
228
Other
-16
-9
-49
-41
-62
-70
Total continuing operations
-6
-682
430
-188
-150
468
Discontinued operations
-
-
-
4,395
4,395
-
Total Fortum
-6
-682
430
4,207
4,245
468
 
July–September 2016
In the third quarter of 2016, sales increased to EUR 732 (661) million, mainly due to the consolidation of DUON and Ekokem into Fortum Group. Comparable operating profit totalled EUR 58 (79) million and reported operating profit totalled EUR -6 (-682) million. Fortum's operating profit for the period was impacted by items affecting comparability, including sales gains, Ekokem transaction costs and IFRS accounting treatment (IAS 39) of derivatives mainly used for hedging Fortum's power production, as well as nuclear fund adjustments for continuing operations, amounting to EUR -65 (-761) million (Note 4 and 6). The corresponding period of 2015, included an EUR -784 million impact from the decision on the early closure of two nuclear units in Sweden (Note 4 and 6).
The share of profit from associates was EUR 11 (-95) million, of which Hafslund represented EUR 10 (10), TGC-1 EUR 7 (6) and Fortum Värme EUR -4 (-8) million. The share of profit from Hafslund and TGC-1 are based on the companies' published second-quarter 2016 interim reports (Note 14). In the corresponding period of 2015, the decision on the early closure of two nuclear units in Sweden impacted the share of profit from associates by EUR -104 million (Note 6). In addition, for Fortum Värme the corresponding period in 2015 included the paid compensation for refinancing the interest-bearing loans from Fortum (Note 14). 
January–September 2016
In January-September 2016, sales was EUR 2,489 (2,495) million. Comparable operating profit totalled EUR 455 (565) million and reported operating profit totalled EUR 430 (-188) million. Fortum's operating profit for the period was impacted by items affecting comparability, including sales gains, Ekokem transaction costs and IFRS accounting treatment (IAS 39) of derivatives mainly used for hedging Fortum's power production, as well as nuclear fund adjustments for continuing operations, amounting to EUR -25 (-752) million (Note 4). The corresponding period of 2015, included a EUR -784 million impact from the decision on the early closure of two nuclear units in Sweden (Note 4 and 6).
The share of profit from associates was EUR 116 (-15) million, of which Hafslund represented EUR 42 (31), TGC-1 EUR 34 (34) and Fortum Värme EUR 40 (23) million. The share of profit from Hafslund and TGC-1 are based on the companies' published fourth-quarter 2015, and first- and second-quarter 2016 interim reports (Note 14). The corresponding period in 2015 was affected by the decision on the early closure of two nuclear units in Sweden, which impacted the share of profit from associates by EUR -104 million (Note 6). In addition, for Fortum Värme the corresponding period in 2015 was lower mainly due to the paid compensation for refinancing the interest-bearing loans from Fortum.
Net financial expenses were EUR -135 (-123) million and include changes in the fair value of financial instruments of EUR 0 (-14) million. In the corresponding period of 2015, net financial expenses included EUR 38 million compensation from prepayment of loans by Fortum Värme (Note 14).
Profit before taxes was EUR 411 (-325) million. The corresponding period of 2015, was impacted by EUR -888 million due to the decision on the early closing of the two nuclear units in Sweden.
Taxes for the period totalled EUR -54 (80) million. The effective income tax rate according to the income statement was 13.1% (24.5%). The comparable effective income tax rate, excluding the impact of the share of profit from associated companies and joint ventures as well as non-taxable capital gains, was 19.0% (25.6%) (Note 10).
The profit for the period for continuing operations was EUR 357 (-246) million. Earnings per share for continuing operations were EUR 0.40 (-0.28), of which EUR -0.03 (-0.77) per share relates to items affecting comparability. In the corresponding period of 2015, the impact of the decision on the early closing of two nuclear units in Sweden was EUR -0.80 per share..
Financial position and cash flow
Cash flow
In January-September 2016, net cash from operating activities from continuing operations decreased by EUR 425 million to EUR 471 (896) million, mainly due to lower Comparable EBITDA EUR 70 million, higher income taxes paid EUR 136 million, and lower realised foreign exchange gains and losses EUR 137 million. In June, Fortum paid income taxes in Sweden totalling EUR 127 million regarding tax disputes. The appeal process is ongoing and based on legal opinions no provision is made, and the payment is booked as a receivable (Note 22). Realised foreign exchange gains and losses of EUR 112 million relate to the rollover of foreign exchange contract hedging loans to Fortum's Swedish and Russian subsidiaries.
Capital expenditures increased by EUR 20 million to EUR 367 (347) million. Net cash used in investing activities increased to EUR 1,439 (0) million, mainly due to the acquisition of shares of EUR 667 (6) million. Acquisition of shares relates mainly to acquisition of Ekokem and DUON. Increase in other interest-bearing receivables, EUR 376 million, relates mainly to bank deposits, given as trading collaterals to commodity exchanges. In 2015, the change of shareholder loans to associated companies and joint venture, EUR 301 million, includes repayments by Fortum Värme amounting to EUR 376 million.
Cash flow before financing activities is EUR -968 (6,303) million. In 2015, the impact from discontinued operations was EUR 6,457 million.  
Fortum paid dividends totalling EUR 977 (1,155) million in April 2016. Payments of long-term and short-term liabilities totalled EUR 962 (919) million including repayment of a EUR 750 million bond and Ekokem loans of EUR 115 million. The total net decrease in liquid funds was EUR 2,887 million (increase 5,318).
Assets and capital employed
Total assets decreased by EUR 1,429 million to EUR 21,338 (22,767 at year-end 2015) million.
Liquid funds at the end of September 2016 were EUR 5,322 (8,202 at year-end 2015) million.
Capital employed was EUR 18,362 (19,870 at year-end 2015) million, a decrease of EUR 1,508 million.
Equity
Equity attributable to owners of the parent company totalled EUR 13,100 (13,794 at year-end 2015) million.
The decrease in equity attributable to owners of the parent company totalled EUR 694 million and was mainly from dividends paid EUR 977 million and the net profit for the period EUR 352 million.
Financing
Fortum was net cash positive at the end of the period. Net cash decreased by EUR 2,058 million to EUR 137 (2,195 at year-end 2015) million.
At the end of September, the Group’s liquid funds totalled EUR 5,322 (8,202 at year-end 2015) million. Liquid funds include cash and bank deposits held by OAO Fortum amounting to EUR 110 (76 at year-end 2015) million. In addition to liquid funds, Fortum had access to approximately EUR 2.0 billion of undrawn committed credit facilities (Note 16).
Net financial expenses in January-September were EUR -135 (-123) million, of which net interest expenses were EUR -132 (-156) million. Net financial expenses include changes in the fair value of financial instruments of EUR 0 (-14) million and EUR 38 million compensation from prepayment of loans by Fortum Värme for January-September 2015 .
In June 2016, Fortum signed a EUR 1,750 million syndicated Multicurrency Revolving Facility Agreement. The committed facility will be used for general corporate purposes and replaces the existing credit facility signed in July 2011. The facility has an initial maturity of five years and Fortum may request two one-year extension options.
Fortum’s long-term credit ratings were unchanged. Standard & Poor's rating is BBB+ and the short-term rating A-2. The outlook is stable. Fitch Ratings long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating is BBB+ and the short-term IDR is F2 with a stable outlook.
Key figures
For the last twelve months comparable net debt to EBITDA was -0.1 (-1.7 at year-end 2015).
Gearing was -1% (-16% at year-end 2015) and the equity-to-assets ratio 62% (61% at year-end 2015). Equity per share was EUR 14.75 (15.53 at year-end 2015). For the last twelve months return on capital employed totalled 3.2% (22.7% at year-end 2015).
Market conditions
Nordic countries
According to preliminary statistics, electricity consumption in the Nordic countries was 80 (81) terawatt-hours (TWh) during the third quarter of 2016. In January-September 2016, electricity consumption increased by 5 TWh to 283 (278) TWh, mainly due to colder weather during the winter.
At the beginning of 2016, the Nordic water reservoirs were at 98 TWh, which is 15 TWh above the long-term average and 18 TWh higher than a year earlier. By the end of the third quarter 2016, reservoirs were 3 TWh below the long-term average and 12 TWh lower than at the end of September 2015. Reservoir levels have decreased due to below-normal precipitation during 2016.
In the third quarter of 2016, the average system spot price was EUR 25.2 (13.3) per MWh. The average area price in Finland was EUR 31.6 (30.1) per MWh and in Sweden SE3 (Stockholm) EUR 29.6 (15.5) per MWh. The system spot price increased compared to the exceptionally low level in the third quarter of 2015, which was caused by high inflows and late snow melt.
During January-September 2016, the average system spot price was EUR 24.4 (20.7) per MWh, with the area price in Finland at EUR 30.8 (29.3) per MWh and in Sweden SE3 (Stockholm) at EUR 26.7 (21.7) per MWh.
In Germany, the average spot price during the third quarter of 2016 was EUR 28.3 (32.8) per MWh, and during January-September 2016 EUR 26.1 (31.1) per MWh.
The market price of CO2 emission allowances (EUA) was EUR 8.1 per tonne at the beginning of the year. During the third quarter the price fluctuated between EUR 4 and 5 per tonne and ended at EUR 4.9 per tonne at the end of September 2016.
Russia
Fortum operates both in the Tyumen and Khanty-Mansiysk area of Western Siberia, where industrial production is dominated by the oil and gas industries, and in the Chelyabinsk area of the Urals, which is dominated by the metal industry.
According to preliminary statistics, Russian electricity consumption was 231 (225) TWh during the third quarter of 2016. The corresponding figure in Fortum’s operating area in the First price zone (European and Urals part of Russia) was 179 (174) TWh. In January-September 2016, Russian electricity consumption was 740 (731) TWh and the corresponding figure in Fortum’s operating area in the First price zone was 567 (561) TWh.
In the third quarter of 2016, the average electricity spot price, excluding capacity price, increased by approximately 10% to RUB (Russian rouble) 1,298 (1,184) per MWh in the First price zone. In January-September 2016, the average electricity spot price, excluding capacity price, increased by approximately 5% to RUB 1,204 (1,146) per MWh in the First price zone.
More detailed information about the market fundamentals is included in the tables at the end of the report.
European business environment and carbon market
Swedish energy taxation
In June, a broad parliamentary agreement covering long-term energy policies was presented by the government and parts of the opposition. One of the key elements of the agreement was tax reductions for the energy sector. In September, the Swedish government presented a budget proposal for the coming years, including a timetable for the tax reductions. The proposal is subject to the formal decision by the Parliament in spring 2017.
Ratification of the Paris Agreement
The ratification of the global climate agreement adopted in Paris in December 2015 has proceeded more quickly than anticipated and the Agreement will enter into force already on 4 November 2016. The European Union finalised its ratification on 5 October 2016. Currently, 77 parties representing over 60% of global emissions have submitted their ratification.
Commission’s summer package
In July, the European Commission released proposals aiming to accelerate Europe’s transition to a low-carbon economy. The key elements of the package include binding greenhouse gas reduction targets for member states in the non-ETS sectors (e.g. transport, buildings, agriculture and waste management) in 2021-2030, inclusion of land use and forestry emissions in the 2030 legislative framework, and a European strategy for low emission mobility. The latter relies heavily on electrification of the transport sector while recognising the role of biofuels too. The summer package, together with the 2015 proposal for the amendment of the emissions trading directive, will implement the EU target of a 40% emission reduction by 2030.
Finnish budget proposal 2017
The Finnish budget proposal for 2017 included key energy-related decisions on the increase of fuel taxes, the so-called CHP tax compromise, and the decision to assess how to bring wind power into the scope of the real-estate taxation applicable to power plants. Currently, wind power is subject to a lower tax rate. New tax treatment would be applicable from 2018 onwards. Also, the earlier announced mechanism to offset the indirect costs of the EU Emissions Trading System for energy-intensive industries was approved as part of the budget proposals. The Parliament is set to adopt the related budget laws during autumn 2016.
Outlook
Key drivers and risks
Fortum's financial results are exposed to a number of economic, strategic, political, financial and operational risks. One of the key factors influencing Fortum's business performance is the wholesale price of electricity in the Nordic region. The key drivers behind the wholesale price development in the Nordic region are the supply-demand balance, the prices of fuel and CO2 emissions allowances, and the hydrological situation.
The continued uncertainty in the global and European economies has kept the outlook for economic growth unpredictable. The overall economic uncertainty impacts commodity and CO2 emissions allowance prices, and this could maintain downward pressure on the Nordic wholesale price of electricity. In Fortum's Russian business, the key drivers are economic growth, the rouble exchange rate, regulation around the heat business, and further development of electricity and capacity markets. In all regions, fuel prices and power plant availability also impact profitability. In addition, increased volatility in exchange rates due to financial turbulence could have both translation and transaction effects on Fortum's financials, especially through the Russian rouble and Swedish krona. In the Nordic countries, the regulatory and fiscal environment for the energy sector has also added risks for utility companies.
Nordic market
Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, electricity is expected to continue to gain a higher share of total energy consumption. Electricity demand in the Nordic countries is expected to grow by approximately 0.5% on average, while the growth rate for the next few years will largely be determined by macroeconomic developments in Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries. 
During January-September 2016, oil and coal prices increased, while the price of CO2 emission allowances (EUA) declined. The price of electricity for the upcoming twelve months appreciated in the Nordic area as well as in Germany, and both are now on higher levels than at the end of the third quarter of 2015.
In mid-October 2016, the quotation for coal (ICE Rotterdam) for the remainder of 2016 was around USD 78 per tonne, and for CO2 emission allowances for 2016 around EUR 6 per tonne. The Nordic system electricity forward price in Nasdaq Commodities for the rest of 2016 was around EUR 37 per MWh and for 2017 around EUR 30 per MWh. In Germany, the electricity forward price for the rest of 2016 was around EUR 37 per MWh and for 2017 around EUR 32 per MWh. Nordic water reservoirs were about 4 TWh below the long-term average and 14 TWh below the corresponding level in 2015.
Generation
The Generation segment’s achieved Nordic power price typically depends on such factors as the hedge ratios, hedge prices, spot prices, availability and utilisation of Fortum's flexible production portfolio, and currency fluctuations. Excluding the potential effects from changes in the power generation mix, a 1 EUR/MWh change in the Generation segment’s Nordic power sales achieved price will result in an approximately EUR 45 million change in Fortum's annual comparable operating profit. In addition, the comparable operating profit of the Generation segment will be affected by the possible thermal power generation volumes and its profits.
In Finland, the technical plan and cost estimates for nuclear waste management are updated every third year. The new technical plan was published in 2015 and related cost estimates were updated during the second quarter of 2016. The update had a minor positive impact on Fortum and is included in the result for the second quarter of 2016.
As a result of the nuclear stress tests in the EU, the Swedish nuclear safety authority (SSM) has decided to propose new regulations for Swedish nuclear reactors. The process is ongoing. Fortum emphasises that maintaining a high level of nuclear safety is the highest priority, but considers EU-level harmonisation of nuclear safety requirements to be of continued importance.
In 2015, the Swedish Government increased the nuclear waste fund fee from approximately 0.022 to approximately 0.04 SEK/kWh for the 2015-2017 period. The estimated impact on Fortum is approximately EUR 25 million annually. The process to review the Swedish nuclear waste fees is done in a three-year cycle. The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) will update the new technical plan in January 2017 for SSM to review. The final decision on the new nuclear waste fees will be made by the Swedish Government in December 2017. However, as a result of the decision on early closure of nuclear power plants, the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, SSM, recalculated the waste fees for the Oskarshamn and Ringhals power plants.
In Sweden, the key political parties (representing 75% of parliament) announced a new framework agreement on energy policy in June 2016. It was decided that: (1) the tax on nuclear thermal effect will be phased out over two years starting in 2017, (2) the regulatory framework for the nuclear waste fund will be reformed in order to enhance yield, (3) the lifetime in the waste fee calculation would possibly be extended from 40 to 50 years, and (4) the third-party liability for nuclear accidents will increase, ratifying a decision made earlier. No date was mentioned for a mandatory nuclear phase out, but a vision of a 100% RES power system by 2040 was stated.
In September the Swedish government presented the budget proposal for the coming years, which included a timetable for the tax reductions in the energy commission agreement. The budget states that the nuclear capacity tax will be reduced to 1500 SEK/MW per month from 1 July 2017 and abolished on 1 January 2018. In 2016, the Swedish nuclear capacity tax for Fortum is estimated to be approximately EUR 84 million. In 2017, the tax is estimated to decrease with approximately EUR 32 million due to the tax decrease and another EUR 5 million due to the premature closure of Oskarshamn 1 in the middle of the year. In 2018, there is no capacity tax.
A decision was also made to decrease the hydropower real-estate tax over a four-year period beginning in 2017, from todays 2.8% to 0.5%. The real-estate tax on hydro will, as stated in the government’s budget, be reduced in four steps: in January 2017 to 2.2%; in January 2018 to 1.6%; in January 2019 to 1.0%; and in January 2020 to 0.5%. In 2016, the Swedish hydropower real-estate tax is estimated to be approximately EUR 115 million. In 2017, the tax is estimated to decrease with approximately EUR 20 million.
In addition to the decrease in the tax rate, the hydropower real-estate tax values, which are linked to electricity prices, will be updated starting 2019. The real-estate tax values are updated every six years. With the current low electricity prices the tax values in 2019 will be clearly lower than today.
The process for renewing existing hydro permits will also be reformed, primarily in order to safeguard small hydro.
The tax reductions are planned to be financed through a higher electricity consumption tax that will mainly affect households. Electricity-intensive industries will be exempt.
In October, the Swedish Energy Agency is expected to make a concrete proposal on how to increase the production of renewable electricity by 18 TWh in 2020-2030.
The work for increased transmission capacity both within Sweden and to neighbouring countries will continue, as will efforts to promote a well-functioning retail market in the Nordic region.
All the above mentioned decisions are positive and a step in the right direction, as all production forms are more evenly taxed. However, some questions remain regarding deployment of green certificates for the 2020-2030 period. The decisions will not impact the nuclear closures that have already been decided on in Sweden.
OKG AB decided in 2015 to permanently discontinue electricity production at Oskarshamn unit 1 and to start decommissioning after the permission for service operation has been granted by the relevant Swedish authorities. The first two stages of the decommissioning process were approved in June 2016. The date for discontinued production and the start of decommissioning has been set to 30 June 2017. Oskarshamn unit 2, which has been out of operation since June 2013 due to an extensive safety modernisation, will stay out of operation. The closing processes are estimated to take several years.
City Solutions
In May, the Finnish Government decided to increase the tax on heating fuels by EUR 90 million annually from 2017 onwards. The negative impact on Fortum is estimated to be approximately EUR 5 million per year.
Russia
The Russia segment's new capacity generation built after 2007 under the Russian Government's capacity supply agreement (CSA) is a key driver for earnings growth in Russia, as it is expected to bring income from new volumes sold and also to receive considerably higher capacity payments than the old capacity. The regulation related to the time frame (10 vs.15 years) of the calculation of capacity payments was finally approved in June 2016. The decision was made to keep the current 10-year time frame, and Fortum will hence receive guaranteed capacity payments for a period of 10 years from the commissioning of a plant. The received CSA payment will vary depending on the age, location, size and type of the plants, as well as on seasonality and availability. CSA payments can vary somewhat annually because they are linked to Russian Government long-term bonds with 8 to 10 years maturity. In addition, the regulator will review the earnings from the electricity-only market three years and six years after the commissioning of a unit and could revise the CSA payments accordingly.
According to rules approved by the Russian Government in 2015, the competitive capacity selection for generation built prior to 2008 (CCS, without capacity supply agreements) takes place annually. At the end of 2015, the CCS for 2016 and the long-term CCS for 2017-2019 were held. In September of 2016, the long-term CCS for 2020 was held. The majority of Fortum’s plants were selected. The volume of Fortum’s installed "old" capacity not selected in the auction totalled 195 MW (out of 2,214 MW), for which Fortum has obtained forced mode status, i.e. it will receive payments for the capacity.
In 2014, the new heat market model roadmap proposed by the Ministry of Energy was approved by the Russian Government. If implemented, the reform should provide heat market liberalisation by 2020 or, in some specific areas, by 2023. In May 2016, the draft law on the heat reform was submitted by the Russian Government to the state Duma (Parliament). The law still requires the consent of the regional and local authorities before starting the reform in certain pilot regions. The Parliament hearings are expected in the fourth quarter of 2016.
The targeted operating profit (EBIT) level of RUB 18.2 billion in the Russia segment is expected to be reached during 2017-2018. The segment’s profits are impacted by changes in power demand, gas prices and other regulatory developments. Economic sanctions, the currency crisis, oil prices and the surge in inflation have impacted overall demand. As a result, gas prices and electricity prices have not developed favourably as expected. Fortum estimates the Russian annual average gas price growth to be 3.6% in 2016 which is lower than the previous estimate of 4.9% because no indexation of gas tariffs is expected during 2016.
The euro-denominated result level will be volatile due to the translation effect. The income statements of non-euro subsidiaries are translated into the Group reporting currency using average exchange rates. The Russia segment's result is also impacted by seasonal volatility caused by the nature of the heat business, with the first and last quarter being clearly the strongest.
In December 2014, Fortum, Gazprom Energoholding LLC and Rosatom State Corporation signed a protocol to start a restructuring process of the ownership of TGC-1 in Russia. The discussions have not yet come to a conclusion. It is not possible to estimate the timetable.
Capital expenditure and divestments
Fortum currently expects its capital expenditure, excluding acquisitions, for its continuing operations in 2016 to be approximately EUR 650 million. The annual maintenance capital expenditure is estimated to be about EUR 300-350 million in 2016, below the level of depreciation.
Taxation
The effective corporate income tax rate for Fortum in 2016 is estimated to be 19-21%, excluding the impact of the share of profits of associated companies and joint ventures, non-taxable capital gains and non-recurring items.
Hedging
At the end of September 2016, approximately 80% of Generation's estimated Nordic power sales volume was hedged at EUR 29 per MWh for the remainder of 2016. The corresponding figures for the 2017 calendar year were approximately 50% at EUR 28 per MWh, and for the calendar year 2018 approximately 30% at EUR 25 per MWh.
The reported hedge ratios may vary significantly, depending on Fortum's actions on the electricity derivatives markets. Hedges are mainly financial contracts, most of them Nasdaq Commodities forwards.Espoo, 24. lokakuuta 2016
Espoo, 24 October 2016
Fortum Corporation
Board of Directors
Further information:
Pekka Lundmark, President and CEO, tel. +358 10 452 4112
Timo Karttinen, CFO, tel. +358 10 453 6555
Investor Relations & Financial Communications, Sophie Jolly, tel. +358 10 453 2552, Rauno Tiihonen, tel. +358 10 453 6150, Marja Mäkinen, tel. +358 10 452 3338, Måns Holmberg, tel. +358 10 452 1111, and investors@fortum.com
Media, Corporate Press Officer, Pauliina Vuosio, tel. + 358 50 453 2383
The condensed interim report has been prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard (IAS) 34, Interim Financial Reporting, as adopted by the EU. The interim financials have not been audited.
Financial calendar in 2017
Fortum Corporation’s Financial Statements Bulletin for 2016 will be published on 2 February 2017, at approximately 9.00 EET.
Fortum’s Financial Statements and Operating and Financial Review for 2016 will be published during week 10 at the latest.
Fortum will publish three interim reports in 2017:
- January-March on 27 April 2017, at approximately 9.00 EEST
- January-June on 20 July 2017, at approximately 9.00 EEST
- January-September on 26 October 2017, at approximately 9.00 EEST
Fortum's Annual General Meeting is planned to take place on 4 April 2017 and the possible dividend-related dates planned for 2017 are:
- The ex-dividend date 5 April 2017
- The record date for dividend payment 6 April 2017
- The dividend payment date 13 April 2017
Capital Markets Day in 2016:
Fortum's Capital Markets Day will take place on 16 November 2016 at Fortum HQ, Keilaniementie 1 Espoo. The invitation is available at www.fortum.com/investors.
Distribution:
Nasdaq Helsinki
Key media
www.fortum.com
More information, including detailed quarterly information, is available on Fortum’s website at www.fortum.com/investors