Financial outlook

Q1 2022 Interim Report

Hedging

At the end of the first quarter of 2022, approximately 80% of the Generation segment’s estimated Nordic power sales volume was hedged at EUR 35 per MWh for the remainder of 2022 (at the end of 2021: 75% at EUR 34 per MWh) and approximately 55% at EUR 33 per MWh for 2023 (at the end of 2021: 50% at EUR 31 per MWh).

At the end of the first quarter of 2022, approximately 75% of the Uniper segment’s estimated Nordic power sales volume was hedged at EUR 26 per MWh for the remainder of 2022 (at the end of 2021: 80% at EUR 18 per MWh), approximately 50% at EUR 31 per MWh for 2023 (at the end of 2021: 60% at EUR 18 per MWh) and approximately 25 % at EUR 30 per MWh for 2024 (at the end of 2021: 20% at EUR 30 per MWh).

The reported hedge ratios are based on the hedges and power generation forecasts of the Generation segment and the forecasts of the Uniper segment’s Nordic generation. The underlying generation assets and definition of hedges differ to some extent and thus are not fully comparable.

The reported hedge ratios may vary significantly, depending on Fortum’s and Uniper’s actions on the electricity derivatives markets. Hedges are mainly financial contracts, most of which are electricity derivatives quoted on Nasdaq Commodities and traded either with Nasdaq Commodities or with bilateral counterparties.

Capital expenditure

Fortum estimates its capital expenditure, including maintenance but excluding acquisitions, to be approximately EUR 1,500 million in 2022, of which the share of maintenance capital expenditure is estimated to be approximately EUR 800 million, well below the level of depreciation.

Generation

The Generation segment’s achieved Nordic power price typically depends on factors such as hedge ratios, hedge prices, spot prices, availability and utilisation of Fortum’s flexible generation portfolio, as well as currency fluctuations. Excluding the potential effects from changes in the power generation mix (currently approximately 45 TWh), a EUR 1 per MWh change in the Generation segment’s achieved Nordic power price will result in an approximately EUR 45 million change in the segment’s annual comparable operating profit. The achieved power price also includes the results of optimisation of Fortum’s hydro and nuclear generation, as well as operations in the physical and financial commodity markets.

Uniper

Excluding the potential effects from changes in the power generation mix, a EUR 1 per MWh change in the Uniper segment’s power sales price for outright generation (hydro and nuclear, currently approximately 25 TWh) will result in an approximately EUR 25 million change in the segment’s annual comparable operating profit. Uniper also has generation other than hydro and nuclear power, and the sensitivity for that generation is different and is not included in the previously mentioned sensitivity.

With regard to Uniper, reference is made to the guidance that the company publishes quarterly.

Russia

In the Russia segment, the financial effect of the CSAs is expected to be negative in 2022 compared to 2021, due to the impact of the expiry of the CSA period of the Nyagan 1 generation unit, partly offset by a higher bond yield.

Income taxation

In 2022, the comparable effective income tax rate (excluding items affecting comparability) for Fortum is estimated to be in the range of 22-25%. Following the consolidation of Uniper, the weight of the profit in different jurisdictions has resulted in an upward trend in the lower end of the range of the tax rate guidance currently driven by the higher nominal tax rates in the Group’s major operating countries.

Possible impacts, if any, of a global minimum tax as stated in the proposed EU directive from 20 December 2021, are not taken into account in this guidance.